Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 4.051682 4.753851 5.530789 6.452716 7.515302 8.700008 10.119361
2025-09-14 2.915663 3.842069 4.978838 6.469388 8.364627 10.685590 13.734032
2025-09-21 2.215388 3.220773 4.566295 6.482519 9.122121 12.607951 17.533120
2025-09-28 1.749730 2.769987 4.241191 6.488829 9.800256 14.455850 21.440444
2025-10-05 1.562732 2.659141 4.342604 7.069505 11.316080 17.599724 27.496303
2025-10-12 1.343341 2.444351 4.235736 7.297069 12.310359 20.077823 32.854276
2025-10-19 1.172141 2.268670 4.149948 7.525122 13.308572 22.645738 38.608426
2025-10-26 1.003832 2.061352 3.969769 7.554852 13.965046 24.719044 43.773943
2025-11-02 0.832271 1.811867 3.669592 7.319548 14.120174 25.958268 47.664828
2025-11-09 0.678817 1.565508 3.330963 6.954671 13.981096 26.654567 50.667348
2025-11-16 0.579361 1.409675 3.138986 6.833920 14.263918 28.104165 55.115345
2025-11-23 0.501277 1.284040 2.985898 6.763408 14.624698 29.717866 60.000112
2025-11-30 0.459783 1.236228 2.993757 7.035928 15.719997 32.864482 68.147475
2025-12-07 0.406007 1.148180 2.899810 7.078742 16.354450 35.195817 74.985442
2025-12-14 0.358462 1.065441 2.803766 7.101750 16.948384 37.506498 82.012797
2025-12-21 0.316832 0.988887 2.708847 7.111690 17.511992 39.807958 89.239521
2025-12-28 0.312448 1.014037 2.867655 7.744823 19.546583 45.377236 103.721384
2026-01-04 0.289017 0.979483 2.868955 7.992856 20.722951 49.222658 114.911017
2026-01-11 0.267895 0.947129 2.870505 8.241113 21.927724 53.241609 126.828153
2026-01-18 0.240595 0.889294 2.793108 8.273509 22.613065 56.165316 136.601088
2026-01-25 0.206772 0.802001 2.617569 8.017534 22.550041 57.374956 142.646624
2026-02-01 0.173441 0.707510 2.403264 7.620478 22.074532 57.570280 146.385977
2026-02-08 0.152210 0.650066 2.289363 7.489049 22.274313 59.386557 154.053735